Trump had made a statement during the election campaign that he would end the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours after taking oath in the Parliament as the President. As now he has won the election and is set to take the oath on 20th January 2025, there is a lot of speculation going on regarding whether Trump would be able to fulfill his pledge as the war entails numerous complexities. Moreover, he did not explain how he planned to end the war. However, analysts are trying to make sense of the possibilities regarding Trump’s plan from interviews given by his advisors.
According to Reuter’s analysts, three close and important advisors of Trump, namely, the Russia-Ukraine envoy, and retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg’s interview revealed that there is no plan to include Ukraine under NATO.
There is some floating news that suggests that Tump’s advisers plan to convince or force Moscow and Kyiv to come to negotiating terms and they have planned to stop providing military aid to Kyiv if they refuse to participate in the negotiation. On the other hand, they have planned to increase their military aid to Kyiv if Russia’s President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is under a crisis of manpower shortages and increasing territorial losses. As he needs to prevent further land grabs by Russia and regain lost territories, he can give in to diplomatic negotiation. However, former U.S. officials and analysts said that it might be difficult for Trump to get Putin on board for peaceful negotiation since it might be more beneficial for Putin to pursue land grabs from Kyiv than the peaceful negotiation.
A former top U.S. intelligence analyst, Eugene Rumer, said that Putin has no intention to give in to the truce and negotiation and to relax his stance, which includes Ukraine giving up the NATO membership quest and surrendering four provinces of Ukraine as claimed to be part of Russia by Putin. However, both the demands have been rejected by Zelenskiy.
According to Reuters’ report, May was convinced to end the war on peaceful negotiation that recognized the current frontlines but was determined to continue the fight if Kyiv and West failed to respond. They already control the entire Crimea they ceased in 2014 from Ukraine, 80% of the Donbas 70% of Zaporizhzhia Kherson, and a small portion of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
As of the current update, Trump has yet to create a central group to curate a plan to end the war. As per, a Reuters report, Trump’s main plan is to pressurize both parties to negotiate. He would supply more weapons to Kyiv if they agreed to negotiate. On the other hand, he would increase pressure on Russia by providing war weapons and military aid to Ukraine in case Putin refused to negotiate.
However, Ukraine is still trying to get a permit for NATO membership and many European countries are willing to invite them for NATO membership. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden is continuing to provide war weapons to Ukraine.
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